Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  37.0  44.7  46.6  58.2  60.3  75.8  75.8  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  25.0  30.0  32.0  30.0  21.0   7.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.7  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0   7.0  -7.0  34.0   5.0  28.0  51.0  51.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  31.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   5.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.52

 EP172023 231021 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    110.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.5  37.0  44.7  46.6  58.2  60.3  75.8  75.8  N  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   42.0  39.0  39.0  39.0  37.0  31.0  30.0  30.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0   2.0   5.0   8.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        1.4%       11.5%        6.4%