Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP172023 231022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     16.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  44.8  49.3  51.1  55.6  66.3  66.3  66.3  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  32.0  32.0  29.0  23.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -5.0  19.0  41.0  30.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  36.0  34.0  34.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 EP172023 231022 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.30    109.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    60.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    60.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     94.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.4  44.8  49.3  51.1  55.6  66.3  66.3  66.3  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  40.0  39.0  38.0  36.0  34.0  34.0  34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -2.0  -2.0   0.0   5.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        3.8%        7.6%        5.7%