Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231022 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 109.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 3.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.1 51.3 51.5 56.2 57.4 76.2 76.2 76.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 33.0 31.0 27.0 17.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -14.0 2.0 38.0 61.0 34.0 66.0 66.0 66.0 U U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 39.0 37.0 36.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 EP172023 231022 06UTC Storm Located at : 24.30 109.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 49.1 51.3 51.5 56.2 57.4 76.2 76.2 76.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 39.0 37.0 36.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 N N N N N F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 12.1% 7.7% 9.9%