Rapid Intensification Guidance EP172023 231022 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 4.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.9 56.3 58.2 59.8 59.8 59.8 59.8 59.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 30.0 28.0 21.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 42.0 47.0 41.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 35.0 34.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.28 EP172023 231022 18UTC Storm Located at : 24.80 109.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 52.9 56.3 58.2 59.8 59.8 59.8 59.8 59.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 35.0 34.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 33.9% 7.8% 20.9%