Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     71.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     53.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.2  26.2  24.2  19.1  16.4  15.8  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0  10.0  12.0  16.0  21.0  18.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        118.6 122.9 122.9 122.9 129.6 129.6 135.0 135.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0 -13.0   3.0 -12.0  69.0  72.0  54.0  98.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  81.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        2.0%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%       12.8%        7.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        5.7%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        5.1%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.9%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.7%       26.6%       14.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.1%        6.1%
 55kt / 48h        6.2%       10.7%        8.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%       10.6%        6.0%
 65kt / 72h        5.3%       26.5%       15.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 EP182023 231022 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.80     96.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.7  22.2  26.2  24.2  19.1  16.4  15.8  20.8  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  81.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%