Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     54.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     41.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.4  24.6  20.1  20.9  20.0  21.4  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   9.0  13.0  20.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 117.9 122.3 122.3 127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0  22.0  -5.0   6.0  28.0  49.0 100.0  73.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        2.7%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       16.6%       10.3%
 30kt / 24h        2.2%        7.6%        4.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        7.3%        4.3%
 40kt / 24h        1.3%        7.3%        4.3%
 45kt / 36h        3.3%       27.3%       15.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       12.5%        6.3%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%       10.7%        7.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        8.8%        4.7%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%       18.0%       10.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP182023 231022 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.20     96.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.6  26.4  24.6  20.1  20.9  20.0  21.4  26.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  76.0  75.0  78.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%