Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     97.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  20.9  21.4  22.0  17.8  21.6  23.2  28.5  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   8.0  10.0  12.0  23.0  31.0  34.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        124.6 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    35.0  36.0  52.0  55.0  66.0  48.0 112.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       11.4%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.9%        4.4%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.9%        4.1%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       14.2%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.8%        9.1%        6.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        4.0%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.8%       12.6%       10.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.44

 EP182023 231023 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.20     97.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     61.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  20.9  21.4  22.0  17.8  21.6  23.2  28.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  75.0  77.0  76.0  77.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%