Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     97.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  20.7  22.5  21.2  18.6  21.2  24.8  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0  10.0  13.0  16.0  31.0  35.0  31.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    32.0  44.0  60.0  36.0  64.0  36.0  65.0 134.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        2.1%       12.5%        7.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.1%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        4.8%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       15.5%        9.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.5%       10.7%        8.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        4.7%        2.8%
 65kt / 72h        9.2%       13.5%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.56

 EP182023 231023 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70     97.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     84.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.4  20.7  22.5  21.2  18.6  21.2  24.8  27.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  74.0  74.0  75.0  76.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%