Rapid Intensification Guidance EP182023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 97.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 24.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 23.3 21.0 18.8 20.9 21.5 24.6 29.5 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 16.0 23.0 27.0 33.0 29.0 20.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 19.0 55.0 35.0 22.0 86.0 71.0 144.0 177.0 U N N U F N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -6.0 -13.0 N N N N N N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 6.2% 4.6% 5.4% 25kt / 24h 10.8% 27.0% 18.9% 30kt / 24h 8.6% 14.5% 11.5% 35kt / 24h 8.4% 14.5% 11.4% 40kt / 24h 8.4% 14.5% 11.4% 45kt / 36h 12.1% 26.9% 19.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 10.3% 5.2% 55kt / 48h 9.6% 15.3% 12.4% 70kt / 48h 2.4% 7.5% 5.0% 65kt / 72h 11.3% 16.3% 13.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.88 EP182023 231023 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.60 97.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.3 23.3 21.0 18.8 20.9 21.5 24.6 29.5 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 73.0 73.0 73.0 71.0 67.0 67.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 -6.0 -13.0 N N N N N N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%