Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     25.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  19.2  17.5  17.9  21.1  23.4  21.2  27.3  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  31.0  35.0  35.0  29.0  19.0  14.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  40.0  41.0  48.0  78.0 112.0 123.0 146.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        3.5%        3.3%
 25kt / 24h        9.2%       24.5%       16.8%
 30kt / 24h        6.8%       12.6%        9.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.6%       12.6%        8.6%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       12.6%        8.6%
 45kt / 36h       11.0%       21.4%       16.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       10.2%       13.8%       12.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        5.6%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h       18.5%       15.2%       16.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.20

 EP182023 231024 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.30     97.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  19.2  17.5  17.9  21.1  23.4  21.2  27.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  70.0  71.0  70.0  64.0  59.0  63.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -3.0  -9.0 -12.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%