Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.5  19.7  21.0  24.5  24.9  29.4  29.4  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  38.0  37.0  31.0  25.0  17.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  15.0  18.0  35.0  40.0  44.0  36.0  36.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        7.6%        7.3%
 25kt / 24h       13.8%       33.5%       23.6%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%       21.2%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       21.2%       16.1%
 40kt / 24h       11.1%       21.2%       16.1%
 45kt / 36h       12.2%       24.2%       18.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.5%        4.7%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%       13.1%       10.3%
 70kt / 48h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 65kt / 72h        3.2%        6.6%        4.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 EP182023 231024 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.90     98.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  19.5  19.7  21.0  24.5  24.9  29.4  29.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  70.0  68.0  59.0  56.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%