Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     98.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     66.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  20.0  22.9  22.9  25.6  23.8  28.6  28.6  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  37.0  30.0  26.0  18.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  14.0  25.0  15.0  23.0  37.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       18.8%       20.1%       19.4%
 25kt / 24h       29.0%       52.3%       40.7%
 30kt / 24h       22.2%       43.5%       32.9%
 35kt / 24h       20.5%       43.5%       32.0%
 40kt / 24h       20.5%       42.8%       31.7%
 45kt / 36h       18.8%       36.9%       27.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.4%        9.7%
 55kt / 48h        9.0%       19.3%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        7.8%        4.6%
 65kt / 72h        2.1%        8.2%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.60

 EP182023 231024 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.50     98.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     77.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  20.0  22.9  22.9  25.6  23.8  28.6  28.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  70.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  54.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%