Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     82.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.4  22.7  24.3  26.2  26.9  29.7  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  32.0  29.0  27.0  23.0  17.0  18.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  70.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -6.0 -33.0  31.0  52.0  23.0  41.0  41.0  U  U VU  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       63.7%       32.2%       47.9%
 25kt / 24h       43.3%       44.4%       43.8%
 30kt / 24h       43.3%       42.9%       43.1%
 35kt / 24h       43.3%       42.9%       43.1%
 40kt / 24h       43.3%       40.7%       42.0%
 45kt / 36h       49.3%       26.8%       38.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       14.8%        7.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.7%        5.3%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.62

 EP182023 231024 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90     99.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    95.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    95.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  22.4  22.7  24.3  26.2  26.9  29.7  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  60.0  60.0  57.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%