Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     99.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    60.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     88.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     75.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.0  22.5  25.5  26.9  29.5  29.5  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  23.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  15.0  15.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    10.0 -18.0  33.0  27.0  33.0  46.0  46.0  46.0  U  U  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.9%       12.8%       27.3%
 25kt / 24h       12.1%       12.3%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%        8.2%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 EP182023 231025 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.70     99.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    60.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.7  20.0  22.5  25.5  26.9  29.5  29.5  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  58.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  50.0  50.0  50.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%