Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP182023 231025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     96.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  22.1  22.9  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  15.0  13.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  35.0  36.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  54.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 EP182023 231025 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70     99.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    45.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  22.1  22.9  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  23.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  54.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%