Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192023 231103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    100.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.7  14.8  16.7  19.9  23.4  33.6  41.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  14.0  14.0  15.0  21.0  21.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.3 114.6 114.6 107.9 112.3 110.1 110.1 110.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0 -48.0 -49.0 -47.0 -11.0  46.0  76.0  91.0 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.0%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.0%        2.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        2.1%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        2.0%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.6%        3.6%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.08

 EP192023 231103 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    100.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  14.7  14.8  16.7  19.9  23.4  33.6  41.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%