Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192023 231104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.7  15.5  16.9  25.2  36.9  34.8  42.3  F  F  F  F  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  13.0  15.0  21.0  27.0   8.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 117.3 117.3 117.3 115.1 115.1 115.1 112.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0 -29.0  16.0  74.0  48.0 130.0  24.0  -8.0 VU VU  U  N  N  F  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  63.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.5%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        4.7%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        4.2%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%        8.3%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.7%        1.3%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        3.5%        2.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.8%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.14

 EP192023 231104 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.00    105.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.0  17.7  15.5  16.9  25.2  36.9  34.8  42.3  N  N  U  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  74.0  69.0  63.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%