Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP192023 231106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  35.6  35.5  39.5  41.0  46.1  51.7  51.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  13.0  14.0  14.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 125.1 125.1 125.1 122.9 116.5 108.5 108.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  -7.0   3.0  28.0  24.0  50.0  29.0  29.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.98

 EP192023 231106 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     10.60    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     51.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.6  35.6  35.5  39.5  41.0  46.1  51.7  51.7  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  60.0  58.0  56.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   7.0  13.0  11.0  11.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%