Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231123 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.5 23.1 22.2 18.8 24.6 34.8 46.2 55.9 N N N N N U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 23.0 24.0 23.0 16.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.5 108.5 108.5 108.5 104.8 103.0 99.4 94.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 -17.0 -4.0 -5.0 -3.0 20.0 41.0 18.0 U U U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 51.0 51.0 51.0 53.0 55.0 57.0 52.0 48.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.2% 0.8% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 6.4% 3.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.6% 1.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 12.9% 6.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.0% 2.5% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 1.9% 1.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.9% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.26 EP202023 231123 12UTC Storm Located at : 11.80 120.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.