Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231123 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 20.9 21.2 20.7 22.8 33.9 41.6 52.9 53.0 N N N N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 21.0 13.0 9.0 7.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.5 106.6 104.8 104.8 99.4 94.3 96.0 88.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 3.0 4.0 -5.0 7.0 42.0 31.0 7.0 U U U U U N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 50.0 49.0 49.0 57.0 52.0 46.0 36.0 VU U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.0% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 4.8% 2.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 1.5% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 7.2% 3.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.5% 1.2% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 EP202023 231123 18UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 121.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.