Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231124 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 122.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 2.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.70 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 21.5 21.7 23.8 29.3 43.7 44.0 51.1 45.9 N N N N VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 11.0 8.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 106.6 104.8 104.8 99.4 92.7 92.7 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 7.0 8.0 15.0 -7.0 33.0 67.0 15.0 -19.0 U U U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 49.0 49.0 50.0 54.0 55.0 49.0 42.0 32.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.1% 0.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 EP202023 231124 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 122.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.