Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202023 231124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     52.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.9  26.1  30.3  40.2  52.7  55.9  55.7  44.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   6.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        104.8 103.0  99.4  99.4  92.7  92.7  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   7.0 -17.0  28.0  35.0  53.0   9.0 -30.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  50.0  53.0  56.0  51.0  46.0  40.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.88

 EP202023 231124 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    122.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.