Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202023 231124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     62.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     79.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  31.7  39.8  46.8  54.8  58.7  47.8  41.6  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.0  99.4  99.4  92.7  92.7  92.7  85.0  76.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0 -22.0  15.0   1.0  64.0  32.0 -49.0 -52.0  U VU  U  U  N  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  53.0  57.0  56.0  51.0  41.0  31.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.72

 EP202023 231124 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.20    122.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.