Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231124 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 42.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 7.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 85.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.3 36.7 42.9 47.9 57.3 58.9 47.8 48.1 N U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 104.8 99.4 99.4 99.4 92.7 92.7 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 12.0 9.0 33.0 42.0 -19.0 -43.0 -23.0 U U U N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 57.0 58.0 53.0 46.0 35.0 30.0 29.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 -2.0 3.0 5.0 16.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.82 EP202023 231124 18UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 122.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.