Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202023 231125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.7  40.0  45.3  54.8  61.9  57.4  54.2  54.2  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   6.0   6.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   3.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         98.0  94.4  94.4  94.4  89.3  89.3  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  16.0  30.0  36.0   2.0 -33.0 -61.0 -61.0  U  U  N  N  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  55.0  52.0  49.0  38.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0   3.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 EP202023 231125 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.