Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202023 231125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.0  47.8  53.6  59.0  59.7  54.6  49.8  49.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  94.4  94.4  89.3  87.7  87.7  86.1  86.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     2.0  40.0  48.0  41.0   9.0 -35.0 -13.0 -13.0  U  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  53.0  48.0  44.0  36.0  33.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   0.0  -1.0   2.0   6.0  14.0  14.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.64

 EP202023 231125 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.