Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231125 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 11.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 62.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.6 58.1 59.9 62.1 58.2 54.7 50.2 50.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.7 78.6 78.6 78.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 44.0 24.0 21.0 14.0 -15.0 -23.0 8.0 8.0 N U U U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 36.0 32.0 33.0 33.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 9.0 13.0 13.0 N N N N N U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.30 EP202023 231125 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.00 123.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.