Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP202023 231126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     50.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        63.2  60.9  64.6  62.4  56.0  51.4  51.4  51.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.3  84.3  82.7  82.7  82.7  81.1  81.1  81.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    12.0  10.0  -5.0 -40.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   6.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  42.0  38.0  36.0  33.0  34.0  34.0  34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   2.0   3.0   7.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.42

 EP202023 231126 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    122.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.