Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231126 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 63.5 64.1 60.6 57.6 50.3 52.1 52.1 52.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 91.0 83.0 83.0 83.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 -15.0 -31.0 -34.0 -25.0 -37.0 -37.0 -37.0 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 40.0 37.0 36.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 33.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 2.0 4.0 10.0 8.0 8.0 8.0 N N N N U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.60 EP202023 231126 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.40 123.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.