Rapid Intensification Guidance EP202023 231126 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 124.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 41.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 56.3 52.5 50.6 48.1 45.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 101.0 101.0 101.0 101.0 97.7 97.7 97.7 97.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -34.0 -36.0 -23.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 -29.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 36.0 32.0 32.0 31.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 1.0 4.0 11.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.52 EP202023 231126 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 124.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.