Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO012023 230511 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     78.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     67.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  25.1  30.0  32.6  36.5  43.4  40.4  37.1  N  N  N  U  U VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  64.0  62.0  61.0  59.0  57.0  47.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   129.0 150.0 154.0 140.0  87.0  37.0 -24.0   2.0  F VF VF VF  F  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  12.0   2.0  22.0  12.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  N VU  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        6.3%        5.1%
 25kt / 24h       33.3%       45.0%       39.1%
 30kt / 24h       11.2%       24.4%       17.8%
 35kt / 24h        5.4%       24.4%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.9%       23.1%       12.5%
 45kt / 36h       13.4%       37.4%       25.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.2%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       13.7%       13.5%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        6.1%        6.9%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h       17.7%        9.8%       13.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.88

 IO012023 230511 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.10     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  25.1  30.0  32.6  36.5  43.4  40.4  37.1  N  N  N  F  F VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  58.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   2.0  -2.0  12.0   2.0  22.0  12.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  N VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%