Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230511 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 88.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 71.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 22.1 30.2 35.7 36.6 35.9 32.4 28.8 N N N U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 65.0 64.0 64.0 59.0 58.0 50.0 48.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 136.0 141.0 139.0 127.0 45.0 14.0 -15.0 -6.0 VF VF VF F N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 54.0 52.0 45.0 49.0 N N N U U U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 4.0 12.0 19.0 27.0 2.0 -3.0 N N N U VU VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.2% 19.1% 20.1% 25kt / 24h 62.7% 66.8% 64.7% 30kt / 24h 33.8% 51.4% 42.6% 35kt / 24h 25.2% 51.4% 38.3% 40kt / 24h 14.3% 48.8% 31.5% 45kt / 36h 29.7% 56.6% 43.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 32.3% 16.1% 55kt / 48h 19.5% 23.1% 21.3% 70kt / 48h 10.0% 13.0% 11.5% 65kt / 72h 20.7% 15.1% 17.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.86 IO012023 230511 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.40 88.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.60 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.0 22.1 30.2 35.7 36.6 35.9 32.4 28.8 N N N F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 54.0 52.0 45.0 49.0 N N N F F F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 4.0 12.0 19.0 27.0 2.0 -3.0 N N N F VF VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%