Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230511 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 88.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 100.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 71.0 65.0 61.0 61.0 57.0 47.0 35.0 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 142.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 53.2% 28.3% 40.8% 25kt / 24h 75.8% 72.7% 74.2% 30kt / 24h 52.8% 64.8% 58.8% 35kt / 24h 50.6% 64.8% 57.7% 40kt / 24h 31.8% 61.2% 46.5% 45kt / 36h 46.4% 56.2% 51.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 31.8% 15.9% 55kt / 48h 36.1% 33.0% 34.5% 70kt / 48h 18.1% 13.7% 15.9% 65kt / 72h 45.0% 16.4% 30.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.94 IO012023 230511 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 88.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 33.1 F F F F F F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 13.0 F F F F F F F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1%