Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230512 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 88.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 95.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 29.5 35.0 42.5 35.2 29.3 40.8 59.8 N N U VU U N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 66.0 63.0 59.0 59.0 61.0 57.0 53.0 37.9 N N N N N N N U Potential [kt] 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 75.5 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 87.0 41.0 3.0 -4.0 -13.0 -37.0 21.0 F F N U U U VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 56.0 57.0 50.0 49.0 49.0 57.0 N N U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 5.0 6.0 27.0 8.0 1.0 -12.0 -4.0 U N N VU U N F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 38.6% 22.5% 30.5% 25kt / 24h 47.5% 50.5% 49.0% 30kt / 24h 35.4% 42.1% 38.8% 35kt / 24h 35.4% 42.1% 38.8% 40kt / 24h 10.4% 38.5% 24.5% 45kt / 36h 19.1% 23.5% 21.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 9.1% 4.6% 55kt / 48h 7.4% 10.8% 9.1% 70kt / 48h 1.0% 2.5% 1.8% 65kt / 72h 1.0% 1.6% 1.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.94 IO012023 230512 00UTC Storm Located at : 13.40 88.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 140.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.6 29.5 35.0 42.5 35.2 29.3 40.8 59.8 N N F VF F N VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 60.0 56.0 57.0 50.0 49.0 49.0 57.0 N N F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 5.0 6.0 27.0 8.0 1.0 -12.0 -4.0 F N N VF F N U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4%