Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230512 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.8 40.3 32.2 32.6 33.6 44.9 51.8 53.2 U U U U U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 60.0 64.0 59.0 57.0 48.0 34.3 20.6 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 52.4 48.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 33.0 24.0 -5.0 21.0 16.0 36.0 2.0 N N U U U U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 50.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 22.0 24.0 11.0 -2.0 -12.0 0.0 31.0 U VU VU U N F N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.0% 15.1% 33.0% 25kt / 24h 38.4% 32.1% 35.2% 30kt / 24h 38.4% 26.3% 32.3% 35kt / 24h 38.4% 26.3% 32.3% 40kt / 24h 11.3% 23.4% 17.3% 45kt / 36h 33.2% 14.2% 23.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 5.5% 2.7% 55kt / 48h 0.9% 2.0% 1.5% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.08 IO012023 230512 12UTC Storm Located at : 14.60 88.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 90. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 90.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.8 40.3 32.2 32.6 33.6 44.9 51.8 53.2 F F N F F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 54.0 53.0 49.0 50.0 56.0 58.0 56.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 13.0 22.0 24.0 11.0 -2.0 -12.0 0.0 31.0 F VF VF F N U N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.4% 4.7% 6.5%