Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230513 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 93.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 30.8 34.1 42.4 56.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 N U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 60.0 54.0 57.0 48.0 16.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 27.4 27.4 27.4 U U U U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 -12.0 1.0 29.0 -1.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 U U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 4.0 -10.0 -6.0 -10.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 U N F F F VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 44.3% 10.6% 27.4% 25kt / 24h 17.0% 10.0% 13.5% 30kt / 24h 17.0% 6.3% 11.7% 35kt / 24h 17.0% 6.3% 11.7% 40kt / 24h 3.3% 5.5% 4.4% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.82 IO012023 230513 00UTC Storm Located at : 15.30 89.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 25.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.3 30.8 34.1 42.4 56.5 51.5 51.5 51.5 N N F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 50.0 51.0 49.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 53.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 10.0 4.0 -10.0 -6.0 -10.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 F N U U U VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 16.8% 8.4%