Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230513 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 90.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 42.7 43.8 44.0 45.5 56.5 63.5 63.5 N VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 57.0 52.0 58.0 37.0 40.0 24.0 8.0 0.0 N N N U N U U U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 27.4 27.4 9.3 9.3 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 32.0 3.0 -27.0 21.0 17.0 11.0 11.0 N N U VU U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 56.0 62.0 60.0 68.0 71.0 75.0 75.0 U U N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -13.0 -12.0 -6.0 14.0 31.0 2.0 2.0 N VF F F U VU N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 2.5% 6.4% 25kt / 24h 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 2.6% 1.2% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 2.6% 1.2% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 30.68 IO012023 230513 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.00 90.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 132.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.1 42.7 43.8 44.0 45.5 56.5 63.5 63.5 N VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 55.0 56.0 62.0 60.0 68.0 71.0 75.0 75.0 F F N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 -13.0 -12.0 -6.0 14.0 31.0 2.0 2.0 N VU U U F VF N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.1% 24.6% 12.3%