Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230513 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 91.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.3 48.7 46.9 44.3 58.1 70.2 70.2 70.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 58.0 37.0 45.0 37.5 22.5 7.5 0.0 0.0 N U N U U U U U Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 14.4 10.5 -5.7 -5.7 -5.7 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -27.0 -33.0 -15.0 63.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 U VU VU U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 U U U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -10.0 25.0 19.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 F VF F VU VU N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.8% 1.5% 7.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.52 IO012023 230513 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 91.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.3 48.7 46.9 44.3 58.1 70.2 70.2 70.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 56.0 54.0 55.0 58.0 60.0 60.0 60.0 F F F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -10.0 25.0 19.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U VU U VF VF N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.9% 36.6% 18.7%