Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230514 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 91.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.0 44.7 43.3 46.0 60.9 60.9 60.9 60.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 35.0 51.0 40.8 30.6 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 U N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.0 25.0 4.4 2.4 -8.8 -8.8 -8.8 -8.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 -30.0 9.0 -3.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -1.0 22.0 40.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 VF N VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.1% 0.0% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 IO012023 230514 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 91.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 133.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.0 44.7 43.3 46.0 60.9 60.9 60.9 60.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 51.0 54.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -19.0 -1.0 22.0 40.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 VU N VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 6.4% 58.0% 32.2%