Rapid Intensification Guidance IO012023 230514 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 93.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -45.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 93.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 80.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.0 48.2 53.7 56.1 58.8 58.8 58.8 58.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 44.6 37.1 29.7 22.3 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.7 37.4 39.4 39.4 21.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 2.0 -2.0 -11.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 -21.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 U N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 31.0 24.0 20.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N VU VU VU N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.92 IO012023 230514 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.80 93.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 105. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 105.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -45.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 47.0 48.2 53.7 56.1 58.8 58.8 58.8 58.8 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0 F N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 31.0 24.0 20.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 N VF VF VF N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 47.1% 91.5% 69.3%