Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230606 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 25.8 27.4 28.3 27.1 25.6 21.5 23.9 N N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 60.0 59.0 60.0 61.0 64.0 69.0 74.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 63.0 84.0 85.0 105.0 127.0 109.0 63.0 70.0 N N F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 43.0 42.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 22.5% 15.4% 18.9% 25kt / 24h 49.7% 56.4% 53.1% 30kt / 24h 32.1% 40.4% 36.2% 35kt / 24h 22.5% 40.4% 31.5% 40kt / 24h 22.5% 40.1% 31.3% 45kt / 36h 33.9% 52.1% 43.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 28.5% 14.2% 55kt / 48h 28.5% 31.2% 29.9% 70kt / 48h 24.6% 20.9% 22.7% 65kt / 72h 61.4% 36.5% 49.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.06 IO022023 230606 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 66.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 20.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 97.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.2 25.8 27.4 28.3 27.1 25.6 21.5 23.9 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 55.0 55.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 43.0 42.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 4.0 -1.0 0.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%