Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230606 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     64.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     32.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  29.7  33.0  27.6  26.1  20.0  20.4  25.8  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   63.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  65.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  84.0  87.0 108.0 118.0  82.0  49.0  84.0  N  N  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.2%       15.0%       19.1%
 25kt / 24h       48.6%       52.1%       50.4%
 30kt / 24h       31.8%       37.0%       34.4%
 35kt / 24h       23.1%       37.0%       30.0%
 40kt / 24h       18.6%       36.5%       27.6%
 45kt / 36h       32.0%       43.5%       37.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       21.1%       10.6%
 55kt / 48h       26.1%       29.3%       27.7%
 70kt / 48h       23.0%       15.5%       19.3%
 65kt / 72h       54.7%       27.6%       41.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.00

 IO022023 230606 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.8  29.7  33.0  27.6  26.1  20.0  20.4  25.8  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0   3.0   8.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%