Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230606 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 63.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.50 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 34.6 34.2 25.8 20.5 20.9 30.0 37.5 U U U N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 64.0 63.0 63.0 67.0 74.0 78.0 80.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 95.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 94.0 97.0 101.0 85.0 68.0 54.0 34.0 31.0 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 64.0 59.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 43.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 7.0 10.0 N N N N F F N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 51.2% 17.3% 34.3% 25kt / 24h 57.4% 51.7% 54.5% 30kt / 24h 57.4% 40.4% 48.9% 35kt / 24h 57.4% 40.4% 48.9% 40kt / 24h 57.4% 39.9% 48.7% 45kt / 36h 40.8% 33.2% 37.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 14.1% 7.0% 55kt / 48h 24.7% 24.0% 24.4% 70kt / 48h 13.4% 8.6% 11.0% 65kt / 72h 31.5% 10.4% 20.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.00 IO022023 230606 18UTC Storm Located at : 12.40 66.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.5 34.6 34.2 25.8 20.5 20.9 30.0 37.5 N F F N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 61.0 64.0 59.0 52.0 49.0 47.0 43.0 N N N F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 -5.0 -5.0 7.0 10.0 N N N N U U N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2%