Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     74.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  33.1  26.5  23.8  23.0  24.0  34.9  45.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   65.0  65.0  65.0  67.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    97.0 107.0  88.0  55.0  84.0  36.0  13.0  22.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  47.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   7.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  15.0  23.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.1%        9.0%       16.0%
 25kt / 24h       45.4%       41.4%       43.4%
 30kt / 24h       40.7%       33.1%       36.9%
 35kt / 24h       40.7%       33.1%       36.9%
 40kt / 24h       40.7%       31.3%       36.0%
 45kt / 36h       31.6%       17.7%       24.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h       19.0%       15.7%       17.4%
 70kt / 48h        7.0%        3.0%        5.0%
 65kt / 72h       19.1%        3.0%       11.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.04

 IO022023 230607 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50     66.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.7  33.1  26.5  23.8  23.0  24.0  34.9  45.1  F  F  N  N  N  N  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  53.0  51.0  53.0  47.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F VF  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   7.0  -1.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  15.0  23.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%