Rapid Intensification Guidance IO022023 230607 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 54.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 28.9 29.7 27.9 25.0 29.8 40.1 48.8 U N N N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 64.0 64.0 66.0 67.0 70.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 72.0 50.0 67.0 56.0 18.0 25.0 17.0 45.0 N N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 49.0 50.0 49.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 47.0 U U U U VU VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 2.0 6.0 24.0 42.0 N F N N N N VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 30.2% 10.4% 20.3% 25kt / 24h 36.7% 32.0% 34.3% 30kt / 24h 29.5% 22.5% 26.0% 35kt / 24h 27.7% 22.5% 25.1% 40kt / 24h 27.7% 22.5% 25.1% 45kt / 36h 29.8% 12.3% 21.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.9% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 6.4% 6.5% 6.4% 70kt / 48h 5.3% 1.5% 3.4% 65kt / 72h 10.0% 1.2% 5.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 31.06 IO022023 230607 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 66.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 83.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.7 28.9 29.7 27.9 25.0 29.8 40.1 48.8 N N N N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 49.0 50.0 49.0 43.0 45.0 49.0 47.0 F F F F VF VF F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -2.0 -1.0 2.0 6.0 24.0 42.0 N U N N N N VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5%