Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  26.0  23.7  23.7  28.2  31.4  43.4  45.2  N  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  64.0  61.0  60.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  39.0  56.0  48.0  37.0  14.0   7.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0  14.0  11.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       31.5%       10.0%       20.7%
 25kt / 24h       33.4%       30.9%       32.1%
 30kt / 24h       32.2%       21.6%       26.9%
 35kt / 24h       32.2%       21.6%       26.9%
 40kt / 24h       32.2%       21.6%       26.9%
 45kt / 36h       36.4%       12.1%       24.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.9%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        6.7%        4.8%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.6%        0.8%        2.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.06

 IO022023 230607 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.60     66.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  26.0  23.7  23.7  28.2  31.4  43.4  45.2  N  N  N  N  N  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  49.0  52.0  52.0  53.0  55.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0  -1.0  -1.0   4.0  14.0  11.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%