Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     66.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     52.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  32.4  31.7  26.8  34.4  44.6  39.3  49.8  U  U  U  N  U VU  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   86.0  83.0  82.0  78.0  72.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    37.0  51.0  16.0   3.0  -1.0  26.0  20.0  36.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  18.0  22.0  22.0  28.0  N  N  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.0%        3.6%        5.3%
 25kt / 24h       10.0%       13.5%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        8.3%        8.3%        8.3%
 35kt / 24h        4.5%        8.2%        6.3%
 40kt / 24h        3.4%        7.8%        5.6%
 45kt / 36h        8.8%        3.0%        5.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.0%        1.7%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        0.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.44

 IO022023 230608 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70     66.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     89.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  32.4  31.7  26.8  34.4  44.6  39.3  49.8  N  N  N  N  F VF  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  47.0  46.0  49.0  48.0  49.0  50.0  F  F VF VF  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   3.0   0.0   5.0  18.0  22.0  22.0  28.0  N  N  N  N VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%