Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     66.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     39.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     31.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  31.8  28.5  32.3  33.7  40.6  46.9  43.5  U  U  N  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  65.0  64.0  61.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  34.0  45.0  73.0  84.0  83.0  76.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  22.0  28.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.3%        1.2%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%        6.2%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.0%        3.0%        3.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        3.0%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        3.0%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        3.2%        1.0%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.3%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        0.1%        2.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.08

 IO022023 230608 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.20     66.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        34.5  31.8  28.5  32.3  33.7  40.6  46.9  43.5  F  N  N  N  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  50.0  50.0  49.0  51.0  53.0  54.0  54.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   9.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  22.0  28.0  21.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.2%        3.1%        2.7%