Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  28.6  33.4  36.7  40.0  38.5  42.6  39.8  N  N  U  U  U  U VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   64.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  66.0  68.0  71.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    38.0   9.0  14.0  13.0  -1.0   2.0  17.0 -14.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   7.0  22.0  16.0  23.0  27.0  23.0  N  N  N VU  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%        5.9%        9.4%
 25kt / 24h       11.4%       15.4%       13.4%
 30kt / 24h       11.1%        9.1%       10.1%
 35kt / 24h       10.2%        9.1%        9.6%
 40kt / 24h       10.2%        9.1%        9.6%
 45kt / 36h        5.1%        2.4%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.2%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.06

 IO022023 230608 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.40     66.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.3  28.6  33.4  36.7  40.0  38.5  42.6  39.8  N  N  F  F  F  F VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   51.0  49.0  48.0  50.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  51.0  F  F  F  F  F VF  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0   0.0   7.0  22.0  16.0  23.0  27.0  23.0  N  N  N VF  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%