Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO022023 230609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.7  28.3  27.4  28.3  39.1  41.8  46.8  N  U  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  60.0  57.0  54.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    48.0  59.0   4.0 -15.0  40.0  52.0   1.0 -19.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  64.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   5.0  19.0  27.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.0%        8.0%        5.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        3.9%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        1.2%        3.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        2.2%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        1.8%        1.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.3%        0.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.00

 IO022023 230609 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.60     66.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.5  32.7  28.3  27.4  28.3  39.1  41.8  46.8  N  F  N  N  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  49.0  52.0  56.0  54.0  57.0  60.0  64.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   5.0  19.0  27.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%